As fears of a recession grow amid President Trump’s new tariff policies, many media analysts are projecting grim times for the industry. Specifically, linear television may face the brunt of the impact. An already declining asset in the age of cord-cutting, linear TV “could mirror the fate of radio and newspapers during past recessions,” noted Michael Nathanson of media research firm MoffettNathanson in a recent report, per The Hollywood Reporter. Nathanson suggests that the linear TV ecosystem could lose $45 billion in advertising revenue during a recession as marketers gravitate towards digital platforms and connected TVs. “In a more cautious environment, marketers will prioritize performance-driven advertising over broad brand campaigns — a dynamic that favors digital and measurable media,” he writes.
However, one potential lifeline for linear TV could be live sports. Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich posits that sports may “remain resilient in tepid advertising markets,” providing a potential saving grace. Despite this, legacy media companies are bracing for challenges. Recently, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav urged staff to cut discretionary spending due to “market volatility and reduced consumer confidence.”
A significant decline in the linear TV business could have far-reaching impacts on live sports. If a recession particularly affects legacy media companies, the sports rights market could become a target for tech giants like Amazon and YouTube, who have already begun acquiring some rights. Currently, live sports are among the few programming elements sustaining linear TV. If a recession cuts into ad revenue and intensifies cord-cutting to the extent that networks can no longer afford rights to all desired sports, the writing may be on the wall.
While linear TV is the most vulnerable to an economic downturn, digital media companies are not exempt. A drop in ad rates and reduced spending from marketers will also affect their profitability, as Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy suggested earlier this month. In short, a recession is detrimental for everyone, but it would pose particularly severe challenges for a declining business like linear TV, which relies heavily on discretionary consumer spending to survive.
