The exclusive negotiating window between UFC and ESPN officially expired on Tuesday, as expected, without a deal. As the TKO-owned promotion prepares to enter the open market, it is poised to attract many suitors, potentially marking one of the most significant sports media rights agreements until the MLB package is available after the 2028 season. Six years after many believed ESPN’s five-year, $1.5 billion deal with UFC was an overpayment, the fight league is now aiming to double that amount; landing $1 billion annually is becoming a realistic expectation.
However, whether UFC can achieve its ambitious media rights goals will ultimately depend on the financial considerations for everyone involved. One thing is clear: there will be no shortage of interested parties. With this in mind, let’s assess where UFC might land in its next media rights agreement.
ESPN +200 (implied odds: 33%)
UFC’s most intriguing prospective partner may also be its current one. While UFC and ESPN have publicly maintained a cordial facade, there are strong indications that the partnership has experienced some strain. UFC has expressed dissatisfaction with various facets of the deal, particularly regarding technical issues, while ESPN has likely been disappointed by the lack of star power in recent UFC cards, exemplified by Conor McGregor and Jon Jones’ limited appearances during the five-year contract, with McGregor last fighting in 2021.
Despite these differences, both entities need each other. The partnership has undeniably provided mutual benefits; ESPN has given UFC unprecedented mainstream visibility, while UFC pay-per-views have become cornerstone offerings for ESPN+, crucial for the upcoming launch of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service later this year. While ESPN may not retain exclusive rights to UFC programming this time, it would not be surprising for UFC to maintain some level of presence on ESPN, whether through pay-per-views, UFC Fight Night events, or Dana White’s Contender Series.
Netflix +120 (implied odds: 45%)
At this point, UFC’s fit with Netflix appears more evident than its ongoing relationship with ESPN. The event-driven nature of UFC aligns perfectly with Netflix’s growing interest in live sports rights, especially considering TKO’s existing partnership with the platform through WWE. Netflix is also poised to participate in TKO’s upcoming boxing promotion, indicating shared goals between the two organizations.
While it’s likely Netflix would seek only UFC’s monthly pay-per-view events, potentially leaving TKO to explore other media outlets for the remainder of its offerings, the biggest hurdle might be if ESPN insists on retaining pay-per-view rights. This could compel UFC to choose between current and future sports media rights prospects. For now, it would be unexpected if UFC did not assist in expanding TKO’s collaboration with Netflix during these negotiations.
Warner Bros. Discovery +670 (implied odds: 13%)
Among the more prominent contenders, Warner Bros. Discovery serves as a significant wild card. Although WBD may lack the appeal of ESPN or Netflix, its active pursuit of sports media rights is evident as it seeks to fill gaps left by the NBA. Importantly, WBD has the flexibility UFC desires through its linear channels (TNT and TBS) and streaming service (Max). A potential issue could arise due to its existing rights deal with All Elite Wrestling, yet one can envision a scenario where TKO benefits from UFC taking precedence over WWE’s top competitor on WBD networks.
Despite WBD’s interest, it isn’t a likely destination for UFC’s exclusive rights; however, it could help round out UFC’s remaining rights in some capacity. It’s plausible for shows like Fight Night and Contenders Series to join the TNT Sports lineup while pay-per-views find homes elsewhere.
Amazon +1150 (implied odds: 8%)
Up until now, Amazon hasn’t been mentioned as frequently as other potential partners, but the global giant has shown a clear interest in acquiring UFC rights. Jay Marine, Amazon Prime Video’s Global Head of Sports, noted, “You know what Dana [White] and that team have accomplished is incredible. They’ve created a valuable franchise with a passionate fan base. If rights come to market, we’d be very interested in exploring that opportunity, like I expect every broadcaster would.”
While Amazon has often been more talk than action in acquiring live sports rights, its evident interest, financial resources, and established platform make the prospect of UFC pay-per-views on Prime Video a possibility that shouldn’t be overlooked.
The field +9900 (implied odds: 1%)
Other potential contenders include NBC, Fox, CBS, YouTube, The CW, and Rumble. Although they all deserve mention, it would be surprising if UFC’s next media rights agreement doesn’t heavily feature the previously discussed partners, whether exclusively or in a collaborative mix.
