The live sports rights market is navigating challenging waters as the media landscape shifts from traditional cable and satellite platforms to digital streaming services. A-list properties like the NFL and NBA continue to secure lucrative deals with both legacy media and emerging streamers; however, mid-level and smaller sports leagues are battling fiercely just to hold onto their existing media rights fees or achieve modest increases. Notably, even Major League Baseball is facing difficulties, exemplified by ESPN’s recent decision to opt-out of its $550 million per year contract.
As securing media rights increases becomes more challenging, leagues have started to innovate in structuring their deals. For example, NASCAR has recently initiated a new series of agreements that allows races to be broadcast on five different networks or streaming platforms, rather than the two from previous contracts, resulting in a notable 40% increase in revenue for their rights. Networks are also becoming more discerning about the live sports properties they acquire and the associated costs. Reports surfaced recently indicating that several media companies are “lukewarm” about acquiring Formula One rights currently on the market, citing the high price relative to the modest audience it attracts.
Media analysts anticipate that this newfound caution among networks will lead to a decline in media rights expenditures in 2025 when compared to 2024. According to research from media firm MoffetNathanson, as reported by Variety, legacy media firms are predicted to see a “slight dip” in media rights spending this year as they recalibrate their budgets. Factors contributing to this decrease include NBC spending less in a non-Olympic year and the conclusion of the NBA’s previous media rights deals in 2025, paving the way for a surge in rights fees when new agreements are established in 2026.
Despite any potential dip, it is significant in a market that historically has not experienced substantial year-over-year decreases since the emergence of cable. In contrast, tech giants like Amazon, YouTube, and Netflix are becoming prominent players in live sports programming. While some are making strides faster than others, interest from these tech companies is certainly on the rise. For instance, Amazon is reportedly allocating over one-fifth of its content budget to live sports in 2025, while Netflix is earmarking only 2%. Compared to these figures, legacy media companies are investing significantly more in live sports: Fox leads with 60% of its content budget and Disney is dedicating 45% through ESPN’s extensive rights portfolio.
In summary, the market for live sports rights remains vigorous. Sporting events are among the few television programming types that consistently attract large audiences. However, as fewer events emerge as definitive megahits even within live sports, networks are exercising caution in their spending. Consequently, the wealthier leagues like the NFL are poised to grow even richer, while smaller leagues struggle to claim their share.
