The dispute between MLB and ESPN escalated rapidly after commissioner Rob Manfred fired the first shot earlier this month. Following Manfred’s warning that MLB would walk away if ESPN opted out of its $550 million annual deal to air baseball during a Feb. 6 press conference, ESPN informed MLB that it would terminate their contract after the 2025 season, two years earlier than anticipated. Now that the two sides are officially parting ways, former MLB president turned sports business analyst David Samson believes Manfred will follow through on his threats.
“For those of you who think this was simply a negotiation where ESPN and MLB are going to cut another deal, and there will be more inventory for the same money, more jewel events, more possibly playoff games, postseason games, N-G-T-H. It’s not going to happen,” Samson stated on a Feb. 24 episode of his Nothing Personal podcast. “The next thing you’re going to hear is MLB with a new broadcast partner.”
Given that money was the primary issue between ESPN and MLB, some hoped for a new deal more favorable to the network, potentially involving lower payments or increased premium inventory. However, that would be challenging with Fox and TNT retaining postseason rights until 2028. Samson immediately dismissed this possibility. He has long criticized ESPN’s treatment of baseball and aligns with Manfred’s view, who pointed out the lack of consistent MLB coverage at ESPN in a memo to teams about the opt-out. “The grass is going to be the same color, except (ESPN is) going to miss it so badly,” Samson remarked about ESPN’s future without baseball.
Analyzing ESPN’s rationale for opting out, Samson criticized comparing its package to smaller deals with Roku and Apple TV+ as “laughable.” He asserted that the Home Run Derby and Wild Card games are the jewels of ESPN’s deal, not the regular season games secured by Roku and Apple. While Samson believes MLB is likely to benefit from the opt-out, he also acknowledged the potential for baseball to end up embarrassed. “I’m not shilling for the commissioner or Major League Baseball,” he clarified. “Somebody’s going to get this wrong. When you announce a mutual opt-out, if both parties don’t end up improving their lots, then somebody got it wrong.”
Both ESPN and MLB will surely be watching closely to see how each side fares moving forward. ESPN will be looking for different programming during the quieter summer months of July and August, while MLB is aware it must secure $550 million or more per year with a new broadcast partner. But one thing is certain, according to Samson: “MLB and ESPN will not renew. It’s done.”
