Every year, the Super Bowl stands out as the most-watched television event in the country, leaving all other events far behind. The only competitors, the NFL’s conference championship games, attract less than half the audience of the Super Bowl. Even major political events, such as presidential debates, which combine viewership across numerous networks, pale in comparison to the Big Game’s audience.
In recent years, Super Bowl audiences have been on the rise. Last year’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs set an all-time record with 123.7 million viewers across CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, and Paramount’s digital platforms. However, according to data from Sports Media Watch, it actually ranks second in the history of Super Bowl viewership when considering all audience measurements, falling behind Super Bowl LI, which had 126.3 million viewers. This discrepancy is largely due to changes in how viewership is measured.
Nielsen, the industry-standard viewership measurement company, has significantly altered its methodology in recent years. Since 2020, out-of-home viewing—capturing audiences in bars, restaurants, and hotels—has been included in the final tally. This addition has consistently brought in between 21 and 27 million viewers annually, contributing approximately 20% to the total audience. However, these changes complicate comparisons with past Super Bowl viewership figures.
This year’s projections are especially high due to Nielsen’s recent expansion of its out-of-home viewing measurements, now covering 100% of the country. Moreover, the use of simulcasts has also played a critical role; since 2014, additional broadcasts have been factored into audience totals, including Spanish-language broadcasts and even specialized platforms like Nickelodeon. For Super Bowl LIX, in addition to the Fox broadcast, viewers can watch on Telemundo, Fox Deportes, the Fox Sports App, or the free ad-supported platform, Tubi. Nielsen will include all these outlets in its final measurement.
Before assessing team performance, Fox is already positioned to break viewership records based on Nielsen’s methodological updates and the strategy of leveraging multiple simulcasts. This year’s Super Bowl will showcase the Kansas City Chiefs, the NFL’s most popular team, alongside star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, making it hard to envision how viewership could fall short of a record. Despite discussions of “Chiefs fatigue,” postseason viewership trends suggest the opposite; notably, of the 12 postseason games this season, only three have seen year-over-year viewership increases, two of which involved the Chiefs.
Historical data demonstrates that established teams or dynasties consistently outperform less familiar matchups in championship settings. For instance, comparison of ratings shows that established teams like the Warriors and LeBron’s Heat attract more viewers than random NBA Finals matchups. Casual fans are drawn to narratives they recognize, which the Chiefs offer in abundance. Additional elements such as the size of the Philadelphia media market and the popularity of halftime performer Kendrick Lamar—fresh off a Grammy performance—are likely to enhance interest. Moreover, Tom Brady’s debut appearance in the booth calling a Super Bowl adds yet another compelling storyline.
Considering all these factors, we arrive at one key figure: The official Awful Announcing Super Bowl LIX viewership prediction is 128 million.
