With just two minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and trailing the Kansas City Chiefs by three points, Josh Allen faced a crucial fourth and five from the Buffalo Bills’ 47-yard line. As the play unfolded, much of the subsequent attention focused on Dalton Kincaid’s drop of a potential first down at the Kansas City 35-yard line. However, ESPN’s Benjamin Solak approached the analysis differently.
In a series of posts on X, Solak illustrated his belief that Allen should have targeted wide receiver Khalil Shakir, who moved into the backfield before the snap, potentially providing a safety valve for the quarterback. He initially used ESPN’s Next Gen Stats animation to support his case, then provided a more detailed breakdown using real footage from both the play and past scenarios where the Bills successfully employed similar strategies. “Allen moves out to his right and wants to push this ball down the field. Kincaid is open and it should have been completed,” Solak states in his five-minute video. “But there are many situations where you could swing the ball to Khalil Shakir, and he would pick up the first down, allowing the drive to continue.”
Here’s why I think Josh Allen shoulda thrown the swing to Khalil Shakir.
Think the zone/man pre-snap tells got him off Shakir early but that’s still your best option. He still makes a great throw to Kincaid that shoulda been caught https://t.co/aAOezZv8oC pic.twitter.com/BKVDvcfdEk
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) January 27, 2025
Despite Solak’s thorough breakdowns, he faced backlash, with critics pointing out that analyzing football plays is not as straightforward as it seems from the benefit of hindsight and screen captures. Many argued it’s much easier to suggest what a quarterback should do with perfect perspective compared to the in-the-moment pressure Allen faced during the play. Notably, even former Chiefs left tackle Mitchell Schwartz defended Allen, emphasizing that the immediate response to pressure on a fourth and five isn’t to pass backwards to a runner. Ryan Fitzpatrick, a former NFL quarterback and current Thursday Night Football analyst, seemed to agree, praising Solak’s insights while also highlighting that his suggestion wasn’t practical under the circumstances.
I actually really like your passion and knowledge for the game but sitting in your comfortable swivel chair with the heater on in the house and a clicker in hand makes the game very easy
Having two unblocked, unimpeded defenders believe it or not is pretty difficult to… https://t.co/AC7I9P4zMO
— Ryan Fitzpatrick (@FitzMagic_14) January 27, 2025
Solak replied, insisting that Allen could have done more to buy time, but Fitzpatrick countered that Allen had already run to his right, which effectively eliminated Shakir as an option.
The second he headed to the right which is what bought him a little time from the first free rusher, Shakir was eliminated from the thought process
— Ryan Fitzpatrick (@FitzMagic_14) January 27, 2025
While Solak’s film analyses have contributed to his rapid ascension in the NFL media landscape, they rarely receive such intense backlash. Ultimately, both fans and former players concur that a quarterback’s decision-making comprises more than simply analyzing opportunities suggested by animations—Shakir may not have been the optimal choice after all. While Solak remains firm in his opinion that Allen should have thrown to Shakir, he also noted he isn’t engaging with critiques on social media, which is probably advisable. The underlying point seems to be that Allen did make a play that should have been caught, and the current discourse around “what if?” stems from Kincaid’s failure to execute.
